Australian House of Representatives, Parliament of Australia, Canberra, Australia by JJ Harrison is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
Australia’s general election showed why AV cannot be considered a form of Proportional Representation, with significant problems around safe seats, proportionality, and pork barrel politics.
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Kingston upon Thames Town Hall by Ben Sutherland is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Our guest blog by Dylan Difford maps the results of London's locla elections under the Single Transferable Vote, a form of proportional representation.
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Congratulations to Andy Burnham, our April 2022 Democracy Ally of the Month!
In the opening weeks of May, MVM supporters voted on a shortlist for Democracy Ally of the Month, a celebration of some of the contributions of MVM's Allies to the campaign for Equal Votes.
This month’s shortlist consisted of:
Andy Burnham: for calling for PR among other reforms in a 'Complete Rewiring' of the British political system in an interview for Sam Bright's "Fortress London"
Chichester City Council: for passing a motion calling on the government "to revisit the present First Past the Post electoral system and to replace it with a fairer system of proportional representation."
Get PR Done: for working with MVM on the 'Councils for PR' initiative
Layla Moran: for advocating for PR and other democratic reforms in light of the war in Ukraine
384 MVM supporters voted on the nominees during the last week of March. A candidate needed 50% of votes to win. If a candidate failed to receive 50% of votes, the least popular candidate was eliminated, and their votes redistributed according to their second preferences. This continued until one candidate has 50% of votes.
This voting system is essentially a form of the Alternative Vote. Unfortunately, a system of Proportional Representation cannot be used to elect a particular person, but AV ensures that the winning candidate achieves at least 50% of the vote.
Andy Burnham: 178
Layla Moran: 80
Get PR Done!: 69
Chichester City Council: 57
Chichester City Council is eliminated and their second preference votes redistributed
Andy Burnham: 178 + 23 = 201
Layla Moran: 80 + 13 = 93
Get PR Done!: 69 + 21 = 90
Andy Burnham reaches 50% of the vote and wins!
A guest blog by Owen Winter, co-founder of Make Votes Matter, on the possible implications of a new system for electing members of the Welsh Senedd.
Yesterday, Mark Drakeford and Adam Price published a "joint position statement" on Senedd reform. The agreement proposed the use of a closed list D'Hondt PR system to elect 96 Members of the Senedd (MSs). The system would have 16 constituencies, each electing 6 MSs. This was criticised by some for its lack of proportionality and "personal" candidate voting. I wanted to take a quick look at how results might shake out under the new system.
Doing so is a little difficult. The new system will be based off pairing up the 32 new Westminster constituencies (proposed by the boundary commission) into 16 Senedd constituencies. We do not know Senedd election results for the new Westminster constituencies, so I have had to design my own 16 constituencies by combining the current boundaries. These are mapped below.
Constituencies used to model the proposed new system
Admittedly, some of these are a bit ugly. I tried to combine pairs of more populated constituencies and triples of less populated constituencies. For example, I've paired Vale of Glamorgan, where 43,000 people voted in 2021, with Cardiff South and Penarth, where 36,000 voted to create one 6 member district with 79,000 votes. At the other end of the spectrum, I've grouped Cynon Valley, where 21,000 people voted, with Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (21,000) and Rhondda (23,000) for a 6 member district with . This has necessarily resulted in some malapportionment, which I tried to minimise.
New constituencies under the modelled system but number of votes cast in 2021
Plaid Cymru is probably the biggest loser from this malapportionment, but the effect is not large enough to have a significant effect on the seat projections below.
2021 Senedd election results under the proposed new system
The map above shows the projected winners in each new electoral district, based on 2021's regional list votes. As expected, Labour dominates, with representation in every district. This reflects the fact that Labour had a very successful 2021 election. Almost all districts have an MS from Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
Smaller parties struggle to make it over the 'effective threshold' imposed by 6 member districts. With only 6 members, there is a limit to how representative each constituency can be. In practice, candidates need to win around 10.7% in a 6-seat district to have a good chance of winning one of the seats. Of the smaller parties, only the Liberal Democrats clear this barrier, in the new district created by combing Brecon and Radnorshire with Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr.
This is surprisingly little change over the 2021 result. The new system would leave Labour with 47% of MSs, fewer than the 50% they actually received. The Conservatives would go from 27% to 30%, Plaid Cymru would stay at around 22% and the sole Liberal Democrat would go from 1 out of 60 (1.7%) to 1 out of 96 (1.0%). It would likely give Plaid Cymru more weight in the administration, while leaving Labour's hold on the First Minister position in tact.
These new results would be marginally more proportional than 2021. Measured using the Gallagher Index, which is a type of average of the difference between seats and votes, the new result would have a score of 10.8 as opposed to 2021's actual score of 11.9 (indicating a smaller difference between votes and seats). For context, the Scottish Parliament typically has Gallagher Index scores between 7 and 8, while Westminster elections can be as high as 15-17.
Interestingly, the new system would have had a bigger effect on the 2016 Senedd election, when more parties won a significant share of the vote. In 2016, the new system would have given the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and UKIP more MSs, reducing the Gallagher Index from 13.0 to 9.2.
This is undoubtedly a step in the right direction in terms of proportionality. The new system does away with single-member districts, which overrepresent the largest party due to 'overhang seats'. The increase in the total number of MSs (from 60 to 96) also reduces disproportionality, alongside the main benefit of increasing the ability of the Senedd to scrutinise a much more powerful Welsh Government. Increased proportionality and consideration of gender balance are both part of the proposed system and key elements of Make Votes Matter's Good Systems Agreement.
However, the lack of preferential voting (as in STV) or open lists means it is not possible to for voters to express a preference among candidates within a party. The new system also means smaller parties' votes will continue to be wasted, without being transferred to a second-choice party. However, this is somewhat mediated by the increased possibility for smaller parties to target achievable gains. The Greens, for example, would only be 2-3000 votes away from winning a seat in Cardiff Central and North. This is a much more achievable target than winning a larger swing across the whole South Wales Central region, albeit not as favourable as some Greens might have hoped.
I hope that this proposed system is seen as a stepping stone for future reform. Devolved assemblies in the UK are far too small in proportion to the breadth of devolved matters. It would be much easier in future to increase the magnitude of each district to 7, for a 112 seat Senedd, than it has been to agree this shift away from the current system. The larger Senedd will also hopefully result in a diverse new intake of MSs, added to the experience of the current Senedd, who will be better able to represent Wales and may be more favourable towards future reform.
A huge thanks is owed to Electoral Reform Society Cymru for their important work on reforming the Senedd. I know they will continue to push for the best possible Senedd system and for further improvements to Welsh democracy.
Proportional Representation isn’t just about counting votes. Evidence suggests that PR actively improves societies, with healthier democracies, more stable policymaking, and better action on existential issues like climate justice and inequality.
Democracy Loves Diversity is the latest event in Make Votes Matter’s Democracy Loves series, designed to showcase how we can use PR to build a better society. In this event, we will highlight how parliaments elected by PR look more like the people they represent. Legislatures elected under proportional systems have a better gender balance, are more ethnically diverse, and are younger, than their equivalents under First Past the Post.
MPs in the UK are still whiter, older, more middle class, and more likely to be a man, than our population as a whole. As we work to eliminate inequalities in all dimensions, having a Parliament that looks more like our population is a crucial step.
The event will be at 7pm on Tuesday 24th May. You can sign up to the event on this link.
The evidence is overwhelming that legislatures elected under Proportional Representation look more like the countries they represent than those elected under First Past the Post.
Age: According to a report by the Inter-Parliamentary Union, parliaments elected under Proportional Representation had twice the number of members under-30 as those elected under First Past the Post, and were on average 2.1 years younger. The reason which they attributed this to were safe seats:
“In first-past-the-post systems, younger candidates are sometimes selected for ‘unwinnable’ constituency seats, where the party stands little to no chance of victory. Some young MPs characterize this variously as a ‘training exercise’, a ‘test of mettle’ or a ‘try-out’. They therefore stand less chance of being elected than their older, more established fellow party members.”
Gender: Every country where more than 40% of their elected representatives are women uses a form of Proportional Representation. A report by the Inter-Parliamentary Union also found that, in 2021, 29.4% of candidates elected in proportional systems were women, in comparison to 26.8% of candidates in majoritarian systems.
Ethnic minorities: There is little compelling research yet on the impact on electoral systems and the representation of ethnic minorities. However, two-party systems have an inherent bias towards less diverse candidate fields, and First Past the Post has typically favoured these two-party systems (Milazzo, Moser, and Scheiner, 2018).
The evidence also shows that PR systems in the UK encourage greater diversity of candidates. In 2019, the Labour Party only selected 6 BAME candidates in its top 99 target seats, while 26 percent of its candidates for the European Parliamentary elections of the same year came from a BAME background.
Speaking about this further will be our cross-party panel, representing a broad intersection of British politics:
Shaista Aziz, Labour Party councillor for Oxford City Council, journalist and comedian.
Dr Hannah Barham-Brown, Deputy Leader of the Women's Equality Party.
Hina Bokhari, Liberal Democrat Member of the London Assembly.
Dr Maria Iacovou (chair), Professor in Quantitative Sociology at Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge
Femi Oluwole, Political commentator
Amelia Womack, Deputy Leader of the Green Party of England and Wales
The event will start at 7pm on Tuesday 24th May. There will be time for an audience Q&A at the end.
Congratulations to Lord Bob Kerslake, our March 2022 Democracy Ally of the Month!
In the last week of March, MVM supporters voted on a shortlist for Democracy Ally of the Month, a celebration of some of the contributions of MVM's Allies to the campaign for Equal Votes.
This month’s shortlist consisted of:
MVM York & North Yorkshire, who have assiduously lobbied peers about the Elections Bill throughout the month
Lord Bob Kerslake, who has campaigned passionately against the extension of First Past the Post in the Elections Bill.
Liberal Democrats for Electoral Reform, for holding a series of panel events on PR at Lib Dem Conference
Chris Clarkson MP, for joining the Alliance for Proportional Representation and presenting at the latest meeting of the APPG for Electoral Reform.
528 MVM supporters voted on the nominees during the last week of March. A candidate needed 50% of votes to win. If a candidate failed to receive 50% of votes, the least popular candidate was eliminated, and their votes redistributed according to their second preferences. This continued until one candidate has 50% of votes.
Lord Kerslake: 190
LDER: 139
MVM York & N. Yorks: 130
Chris Clarkson: 69
Chris Clarkson is eliminated and his second preference votes redistributed
Lord Kerslake: 190 + 38 Chris Clarkson 2nd pref: 228
LDER: 139 + 20 Chris Clarkson 2nd pref: 153
MVM York & N. Yorks: 130 + 17 Chris Clarkson 2nd pref: 147
MVM York & North Yorkshire is eliminated and their second preference votes redistributed
17 Chris Clarkson voters put MVM York & North Yorkshire as their second preference. Their third preference votes are reallocated.
15 MVM York & North Yorkshire voters put Chris Clarkson as their second preference. Their third preference votes are reallocated.
Lord Kerslake: 228 + 90 MVM YNY 2nd pref: 318
LDER: 153 + 25 MVM YNY 2nd pref: 178
Lord Kerslake: 318 + 10 Chris Clarkson 3rd pref: 328
LDER: 185 + 7 Chris Clarkson 3rd pref: 185
Lord Kerslake: 328 + 12 MVM YNY 3rd pref: 340
LDER: 185 + 3 MVM YNY 3rd pref: 188
Lord Kerslake wins!
On 30th March, we handed in a petition with the names of 34,298 MVM supporters objecting to the extension of First Past the Post to Mayors and Police and Crime Commissioners.
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Andy Burnham: Image by NHS Confederation for flickr
Mayors have written to the government objecting to the imposition of First Past the Post in the Elections Bill.
Read MoreOn 11th December, Make Votes Matter supporters across the country joined in the final action day of 2021. The theme this time was “Shine a Light on PR” and our activists really stepped up to the challenge.
Read MoreAcross the country, more people are becoming aware that we can make a better democracy. But the Government is determined to close off our broad variety of voices from being heard. Join us, and have your voice heard, as we stand against the Elections Bill, to help maintain a free and fair democracy.
Read MoreThe research has looked into the reality of the Supplementary Vote system, which the government is trying to abolish in the Elections Bill.
Read MoreA new poll conducted by Number Cruncher Politics, commissioned by Labour for a New Democracy, of which Make Votes Matter is a founding member, has found a majority of the public in favour of Proportional Representation.
Read MoreWe were very pleased last week to welcome Chartist Magazine into the Make Votes Matter Alliance.
Chartist have been working very closely with us for a while now as part of Labour for a New Democracy (L4ND). As you may have guessed, they have a history of supporting reform and championing democracy in Britain, with their name a tribute to the Chartist movement that sprung up in London and Wales in 1836, and quickly spread to other parts of Britain over the following decades.
If you live in England or Wales, the UK Government is trying to force you to use First Past the Post more often. It’s a broken voting system, and they want to impose it on you every time you vote for directly-elected mayors or Police and Crime Commissioners.
Read More‘...democracy is a universal value based on the freely expressed will of people to determine their own political, economic, social and cultural systems and their full participation in all aspects of their lives.’
This statement was taken from the resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly on the 8th November 2007, establishing the celebration of International Day of Democracy on the 15th September each year. But is this democracy?
Read MoreTrades unions have long been a place for workers to have their voices heard. Like much of the country, many of our members have been trapped in constituencies where their vote doesn’t count. Unions give them a voice: even if they can’t change their MP, they are still represented by their union and can have a say in union democracy.
More than ever, the power of our voices is becoming clear. The press have watched with increasing interest for recent Union election results, and on where we will stand on the great issues of the day.
Recently, voting reform has been one of these great issues. With motions coming to Labour conference for the party to end its support of First Past the Post, unions such as mine have been discussing how we will approach such a serious issue.
Read MoreWe already knew that First Past the Post (FPTP) fails to properly represent women. In the UK, men are much more likely to hold safe seats, for example. Around the world, there is a huge wealth of evidence showing how fewer women are elected under FPTP than under Proportional Representation (PR). But new research suggests that the effect of FPTP is even more pervasive than we realised.
Read MoreOpponents of Proportional Representation often say that they want stable government. But under First Past the Post, small swings in popularity can produce wildly different Parliaments.
Governments often call snap elections because they like the look of the polls - as we’ve just seen in Canada.
Read MoreFrom rapping to samba drumming, singing songs and making passionate speeches, activists amplified their voices to Make Noise for PR.
Read our blog about the summer day of action which took place at various locations across the UK on Saturday 31st July.
Read MoreIn May, we were very pleased to see Andy Burnham declare his support for Proportional Representation on Twitter, as a result of our #PledgeForPR campaign. Make Votes Matter is committed to engaging and building alliances with politicians from across the political spectrum. As one of the most prominent politicians outside of Westminster, it was great to get a positive response from Andy.
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